America’s foreign policy for the past two decades has been miserable. Time and time again, the World’s Policeman has acted only in its own interest or what it perceives it to be beneficial. The art of nation building is not confined to arbitrary borders drawn on the map decades or centuries ago. ‘Why can’t we all get along’ does not work in conflict regions. Divided peoples don’t form nations. Political borders mean squat if you don’t resonate with the central government’s aspirations. I will run through a few international regions which have been conflicted lately, and discuss how America’s cookie cutter policies do not work and that democracy is not the world’s panacea.
Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
The relatively resort-like peninsula of Crimea had been in the Russian Empire’s fold since it was annexed by Catherine the Great in 1783. In 1954, Communist Russia transferred the peninsula to Ukraine, which didn’t seem such of a big deal then, since Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union which was mostly Russian centric. The Muslims Tatars which were remnants of the older Ottoman vassal state, Crimean Khanate, were severely oppressed during the Communist period.
Ukraine’s borders in the 20th centuries were always changing. To the Russians, the south and eastern parts of modern day Ukraine, particularly the cities of Sevastopol and Odessa, were very much part of the Russians nation building. Ethnic Ukrainians on the other hand identify more closely with the Polish nation to the West.
In 1991, when Ukrainians including ethnic Russians (except Crimean) overwhelmingly voted secession from the Soviet Union they voted because of years of destitution and aggravation with the enormous Communist entity. Today prior to the 2014 elections, elections reveal a schism between the Russian speaking east and south and Ukrainian speaking Ukraine.
Nowhere was more pro-Russian than in Crimea, where more than half its inhabitants are Russian. After Moscow disguisedly took over control of Crimea, referendums on whether to join Russia were held, and although the results were widely discredited as a farce (the Tatars boycotted the elections), the mood on the ground clearly shows that the majority favours a Russian future.
In my view, Russia is trying to protect its people even ones outside their national borders. In the decade leading, Russia has created precedent for this. Russia invaded the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia on the reason of defending the native Russian people. Not to mention, Russia has vested interests in Crimea, including its Black Sea fleet harbour in Sevastopol.
Is this a modern invasion or liberation? Encountering no resistance to Russian rule, but instead greeting it with open arms. Why should we try to restrain a rat if it so desperately wants to flee our grasp? Wouldn’t we then be its captor?
Of course, the West stands firm against Russians newly acquired territory. Russia and China are the frenemies! These retaliatory stances are evocative of Cold War times as the new pro-West Ukrainian president takes office. My take on this is that National borders aren’t sacrosanct, and the determining factor is the desire of the territory’s inhabitants.
Iraq
When George Bush Jr. rolled his tanks into Iraq, he didn’t have an exit plan. Maybe he thought he could occupy it for years and years, and the oil will bring mutual benefit for the US and Iraq. Now with terrorist groups destabilizing Iraq along sectarian lines, I see the best solution as digging up Saddam Hussein, reanimating him, and putting him back in charge.
Jokes aside, in the haste of leaving Iraq, Obama has not left a government that can last. I think the biggest mistake is thinking of Iraq as a strong united country. The Middle East’s problems really started a century ago, after the British and French were divvying up the spoils after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I. The natural boundaries that follow ethnic lines were completely ignored. I think the British drew Iraq’s boundaries based on the Tigris/Euphrates river boundaries that were within British influence, as opposed to Syria which was under French influence.
Saddam Hussein was a national hero, I would say, keeping the fractious communities under the same flag. Amongst other, the three main ethnic groups or sects in Iraq are the Kurds, the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims. Saddam was a Sunni and oppressed everyone else. The weak governments that US installed after Saddam’s downfall were democratically elected Shia Muslims from the southeast. Iraq’s newer Shia Presidents began to govern along sectarian lines, favouring his own over the minorities, naturally.
One man one vote, and there are more Shias than Sunnis in Iraq. Which goes to show how incredible Saddam was, he could never win an election freely and fairly. Just like Thailand, just because he is democratically elected, it does not mean he is accepted by all. Another case of failed democracy, a notion which the West just cannot accept.
It is time to split up. Like Crimea in Ukraine, it is pointless to hold on to a larger political entity if no one can see eye to eye. And since neighbouring Syria is also fractious, the new borders will probably be along more natural sectarian lines which straddle current national borders. We can only wish that events in the future could prevent these territories from becoming militant states.
Kurdistan
This brings me to Kurdistan, an aspirational nation of the Kurdish people, which I have grown to sympathise with. The Kurds today live in a region that spans across primarily 4 countries; Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Thirty million people without a state to call their own. They are Muslim but they are not fanatical. They openly accept people of other faiths and races in their lands unlike the Iraqi Arabs. They fight because they want a state of their own. The governments of the four adjacent countries multilaterally suppressed the Kurds, fearing loss of territorial sovereignty if ever a Kurdistan arises.
Since the first Gulf War in 1991, the Kurds fought Saddam and created their own quasi state which remains today, despite the Gulf War and the American ‘interventions’. The region in Northern Iraq is called Iraqi Kurdistan or Southern Kurdistan is administered by a government called Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In the current government (or what’s left of it that is functioning), the democratically elected KRG administers a few northern provinces as a federal region.
Kurdistan is peaceful. Kurdistan is prosperous. Or so says the promotional content of KRG to the world concentrating on its motto: The Other Iraq. Iraqi Kurdistan may well be on its way to statehood, with the instability and unravelling of the Iraqi government. But what would be better is if they were to merge with Western Kurdistan or also known as Rojava in Syria. Since Syria’s civil War, much of Kurdish lands are controlled by Kurdish militias trying to isolate themselves from the horrors happening in rest of Syria but find themselves battling Al Qaeda forces.
India
India’s case is interesting, since independence, has created a bevy of new states delineated by linguistic and ethnic boundaries and also as way to encourage economic development in less developed areas by means of better governance as opposed to a large but less efficient monolithic government entity. More state reorganisations are planned in the future to achieve similar goals.
Does the reorganisation of internal political boundaries threaten the Indian federal government? I think not, instead it gives the community a sense of empowerment and to the community, a government that understands them and their sensibilities. In other words, reorganising the states in such a way dampens any ethnic based secessionist sentiments.
Of course, the exception in India is Kashmir, which actually closely resembles the situation in Crimea. When India and Pakistan was partitioned in 1947, Muslim dominated regions in Kashmir should have at least been awarded to Pakistan. In the decades ahead, pro Hindu policies of the Indian governments only serve to alienate the Kashmiri Muslims more. Naturally, the Muslim residents of Kashmir Valley have repeatedly revolted against the Indian state, and formed their own terror groups. The whole mess harks back to political blunders left by colonial powers, not unlike in Iraq. What we have today is a heavily militarized zone with multiple overlapping claims between India, Pakistan and yes, China. It looks like the situation will remain in status quo for a long time to come.
Thailand
All everyone can think of when thinking about Thailand’s political impasse is Red Shirts vs Yellow Shirts. The Red Shirts are Thaksin supporters from the rural areas excluding Southern Thailand who constantly win elections because of their numbers. Yellow shirts are urban folk who think Thaksin’s corruption is too much and any Red Shirt should not come into power even if they win. Their side has toppled the Red Shirt government twice before by means of street protests and judicial coups.
The army general launched a coup of his own, dismissing the previous constitution and setting up a temporary military government eschewing democratic values. This is the Thai kingdom’s twelfth coup since independence, and it is clear that the army does not have long term plans as government. Most Western leaders decry such a move, counselling a return to democracy.
On the contrary I think this is the best thing to happen to Thailand. I am not taking any faction’s side but simply reflecting on how democracy has failed despondently in Thailand. When a party wins an election, all sides have to respect the outcome and not try to overthrow the legally elected government by hook or by crook.
With that being said, if corruption is an issue, institutions should be in place to keep the elected representatives in check. But most importantly, the new constitution should have procedures in place to disallow any future political impasses to further stagnate Thailand’s development. Either the general gets real creative or he should engage some madcap constitutionalist to come up with some bizarre form of government.
The USA has the Foreign Assistance Act, Section 508 of which states that the U.S. must cut aid to countries in which a “duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup” until the resumption of civilian rule. So like a broken record, when a government falls off the thin tight-rope that is democracy, the State department issues its default ‘return to democracy’ statement. But the truth is, not every country is ready for democratic rule. In some countries, the majority has no interest in the welfare of the minority. Sometimes, certain regions need to be carved out from long existing nations. Sometimes they can exist peacefully as autonomous regions. Other times you need to be mindful of which inter-community dynamic works well and preserve it.