National Boundaries Are Not Unalterable

America’s foreign policy for the past two decades has been miserable. Time and time again, the World’s Policeman has acted only in its own interest or what it perceives it to be beneficial. The art of nation building is not confined to arbitrary borders drawn on the map decades or centuries ago. ‘Why can’t we all get along’ does not work in conflict regions. Divided peoples don’t form nations. Political borders mean squat if you don’t resonate with the central government’s aspirations. I will run through a few international regions which have been conflicted lately, and discuss how America’s cookie cutter policies do not work and that democracy is not the world’s panacea.

Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

The relatively resort-like peninsula of Crimea had been in the Russian Empire’s fold since it was annexed by Catherine the Great in 1783. In 1954, Communist Russia transferred the peninsula to Ukraine, which didn’t seem such of a big deal then, since Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union which was mostly Russian centric. The Muslims Tatars which were remnants of the older Ottoman vassal state, Crimean Khanate, were severely oppressed during the Communist period.

Ukraine’s borders in the 20th centuries were always changing. To the Russians, the south and eastern parts of modern day Ukraine, particularly the cities of Sevastopol and Odessa, were very much part of the Russians nation building. Ethnic Ukrainians on the other hand identify more closely with the Polish nation to the West.

In 1991, when Ukrainians including ethnic Russians (except Crimean) overwhelmingly voted secession from the Soviet Union they voted because of years of destitution and aggravation with the enormous Communist entity. Today prior to the 2014 elections, elections reveal a schism between the Russian speaking east and south and Ukrainian speaking Ukraine.

Nowhere was more pro-Russian than in Crimea, where more than half its inhabitants are Russian. After Moscow disguisedly took over control of Crimea, referendums on whether to join Russia were held, and although the results were widely discredited as a farce (the Tatars boycotted the elections), the mood on the ground clearly shows that the majority favours a Russian future.

In my view, Russia is trying to protect its people even ones outside their national borders. In the decade leading, Russia has created precedent for this. Russia invaded the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia on the reason of defending the native Russian people. Not to mention, Russia has vested interests in Crimea, including its Black Sea fleet harbour in Sevastopol.

Is this a modern invasion or liberation? Encountering no resistance to Russian rule, but instead greeting it with open arms. Why should we try to restrain a rat if it so desperately wants to flee our grasp? Wouldn’t we then be its captor?

Of course, the West stands firm against Russians newly acquired territory. Russia and China are the frenemies! These retaliatory stances are evocative of Cold War times as the new pro-West Ukrainian president takes office. My take on this is that National borders aren’t sacrosanct, and the determining factor is the desire of the territory’s inhabitants.

Iraq

When George Bush Jr. rolled his tanks into Iraq, he didn’t have an exit plan. Maybe he thought he could occupy it for years and years, and the oil will bring mutual benefit for the US and Iraq. Now with terrorist groups destabilizing Iraq along sectarian lines, I see the best solution as digging up Saddam Hussein, reanimating him, and putting him back in charge.

Jokes aside, in the haste of leaving Iraq, Obama has not left a government that can last. I think the biggest mistake is thinking of Iraq as a strong united country. The Middle East’s problems really started a century ago, after the British and French were divvying up the spoils after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in World War I. The natural boundaries that follow ethnic lines were completely ignored. I think the British drew Iraq’s boundaries based on the Tigris/Euphrates river boundaries that were within British influence, as opposed to Syria which was under French influence.

Saddam Hussein was a national hero, I would say, keeping the fractious communities under the same flag. Amongst other, the three main ethnic groups or sects in Iraq are the Kurds, the Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims. Saddam was a Sunni and oppressed everyone else. The weak governments that US installed after Saddam’s downfall were democratically elected Shia Muslims from the southeast. Iraq’s newer Shia Presidents began to govern along sectarian lines, favouring his own over the minorities, naturally.

 One man one vote, and there are more Shias than Sunnis in Iraq. Which goes to show how incredible Saddam was, he could never win an election freely and fairly. Just like Thailand, just because he is democratically elected, it does not mean he is accepted by all. Another case of failed democracy, a notion which the West just cannot accept.

It is time to split up. Like Crimea in Ukraine, it is pointless to hold on to a larger political entity if no one can see eye to eye. And since neighbouring Syria is also fractious, the new borders will probably be along more natural sectarian lines which straddle current national borders. We can only wish that events in the future could prevent these territories from becoming militant states.

Kurdistan

This brings me to Kurdistan, an aspirational nation of the Kurdish people, which I have grown to sympathise with. The Kurds today live in a region that spans across primarily 4 countries; Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Thirty million people without a state to call their own. They are Muslim but they are not fanatical. They openly accept people of other faiths and races in their lands unlike the Iraqi Arabs. They fight because they want a state of their own. The governments of the four adjacent countries multilaterally suppressed the Kurds, fearing loss of territorial sovereignty if ever a Kurdistan arises.

Since the first Gulf War in 1991, the Kurds fought Saddam and created their own quasi state which remains today, despite the Gulf War and the American ‘interventions’. The region in Northern Iraq is called Iraqi Kurdistan or Southern Kurdistan is administered by a government called Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In the current government (or what’s left of it that is functioning), the democratically elected KRG administers a few northern provinces as a federal region.

Kurdistan is peaceful. Kurdistan is prosperous. Or so says the promotional content of KRG to the world concentrating on its motto: The Other Iraq. Iraqi Kurdistan may well be on its way to statehood, with the instability and unravelling of the Iraqi government. But what would be better is if they were to merge with Western Kurdistan or also known as Rojava in Syria. Since Syria’s civil War, much of Kurdish lands are controlled by Kurdish militias trying to isolate themselves from the horrors happening in rest of Syria but find themselves battling Al Qaeda forces.

India

India’s case is interesting, since independence, has created a bevy of new states delineated by linguistic and ethnic boundaries and also as way to encourage economic development in less developed areas by means of better governance as opposed to a large but less efficient monolithic government entity. More state reorganisations are planned in the future to achieve similar goals.

Does the reorganisation of internal political boundaries threaten the Indian federal government? I think not, instead it gives the community a sense of empowerment and to the community, a government that understands them and their sensibilities. In other words, reorganising the states in such a way dampens any ethnic based secessionist sentiments.

Of course, the exception in India is Kashmir, which actually closely resembles the situation in Crimea. When India and Pakistan was partitioned in 1947, Muslim dominated regions in Kashmir should have at least been awarded to Pakistan. In the decades ahead, pro Hindu policies of the Indian governments only serve to alienate the Kashmiri Muslims more. Naturally, the Muslim residents of Kashmir Valley have repeatedly revolted against the Indian state, and formed their own terror groups. The whole mess harks back to political blunders left by colonial powers, not unlike in Iraq. What we have today is a heavily militarized zone with multiple overlapping claims between India, Pakistan and yes, China. It looks like the situation will remain in status quo for a long time to come.

Thailand

All everyone can think of when thinking about Thailand’s political impasse is Red Shirts vs Yellow Shirts. The Red Shirts are Thaksin supporters from the rural areas excluding Southern Thailand who constantly win elections because of their numbers. Yellow shirts are urban folk who think Thaksin’s corruption is too much and any Red Shirt should not come into power even if they win. Their side has toppled the Red Shirt government twice before by means of street protests and judicial coups.

The army general launched a coup of his own, dismissing the previous constitution and setting up a temporary military government eschewing democratic values. This is the Thai kingdom’s twelfth coup since independence, and it is clear that the army does not have long term plans as government. Most Western leaders decry such a move, counselling a return to democracy.

On the contrary I think this is the best thing to happen to Thailand. I am not taking any faction’s side but simply reflecting on how democracy has failed despondently in Thailand. When a party wins an election, all sides have to respect the outcome and not try to overthrow the legally elected government by hook or by crook.

With that being said, if corruption is an issue, institutions should be in place to keep the elected representatives in check. But most importantly, the new constitution should have procedures in place to disallow any future political impasses to further stagnate Thailand’s development. Either the general gets real creative or he should engage some madcap constitutionalist to come up with some bizarre form of government.

The USA has the Foreign Assistance Act, Section 508 of which states that the U.S. must cut aid to countries in which a “duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup” until the resumption of civilian rule. So like a broken record, when a government falls off the thin tight-rope that is democracy, the State department issues its default ‘return to democracy’ statement. But the truth is, not every country is ready for democratic rule. In some countries, the majority has no interest in the welfare of the minority. Sometimes, certain regions need to be carved out from long existing nations. Sometimes they can exist peacefully as autonomous regions. Other times you need to be mindful of which inter-community dynamic works well and preserve it.

KIDEX alignment in the Klang Valley

The controversial KIDEX highway is widely speculated to acquire an indefinite number of land plots and people's homes, grinding its way like a chainsaw through a "serene" neighbourhood. (It's really so congested now, it's anything but serene). But the Kidex, working in conjunction with the SKIP highway (see other proposed highways) to provide an alternative North-South alignment to the LDP or Lebuhraya Damansara-Puchong highway, which is an important but heavily choked North-South highway.

The origin of the problem is that the Klang Valley roads are not designed with a grid like matrix like in other cities, and so all these proposed brown-field highways try to correct the navigational inadequacies of the current highway networks. The closest North-South highways are the LDP, the NKVE and the MEX. I don't have a traffic projection software and a supercomputer in my garage, so I can't tell you what percentage of traffic it will alleviate, but I can tell you qualitatively that it will ease the pressure off the East-West highways like the Federal Highway.

But I have reservations for the northern termini of Kidex as it feeds into the northern sections of LDP and the NKVE, two chronic highways Kidex is supposed to remedy. It's definitely a case of diverting the jam somewhere else.

In the Google map below, KIDEX is in purple, while the LDP is the thick green line.


View KIDEX in the Klang Valley in a larger map

Map of Proposed Highways in the Greater Klang Valley

The Selangor Menteri Besar announced that if the Kidex Skyway (Kinrara - Damansara Expressway Skyway) is not approved, four other proposed highway projects may get the axe as well. In the map I drew above (painstakingly I might add), I highlighted six highway projects and superimposed them on a map of existing expressways and major roads. Some expressway alignments are modified to express overall traffic flow as opposed to actual highway limits. I also outlined dense urban areas and where the highways connect to.

I am missing the Besraya Eastern Extension because it is too new, and I don't have the alignment. The West Coast Expressweay alignment is mostly guesswork because there isn't enough resources. The EKVE is missing a few spurs connecting to Ampang, Ukay Perdana and Hulu Langat, but the whole alignment is still up in the air, so I didn't bother. Actually, most of the proposed expressways are not finalized, so they may be subject to change.

 

PJ Free City Bus Route

The Free City Bus (FCB) service was launched in March 2014 from 6am to 9pm daily travelling on a 28.2km route around PJ. The bus route that was published was a little unclear around PJ state area because of the current one way system vehicles are forced to take to get anywhere in the area.

So I've redrawn a map to make it a lot clearer. Also I've divided the route into 3 stages, so the three different colours accentuate the route around PJ State.

Of course the One Way traffic system is slated to be implemented soon, so the route will change.

Report Card for Everyone Involved in the Missing MH370

Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) Director General Azharuddin Abdul Rahman
In the early days of the investigation, I believe it is this guy who brought tarnish and shame to Malaysia as the main spokesperson, confusing the media and the affected families with unclear answers, flip-flopping statements, contradictory reports and plain ridiculous comments.  Remember that the Iranians looked like Mario Balotelli?

Not being a politician, Azharuddin is actually the top civil servant of his department. And the lack of crises during his tenure greatly speaks to the seemingly poor crisis management. For instance, in response to questions, he simply blurts out what he thinks is mainly the truth instead of preparing all his facts before hand or even saying ‘I’ll get back to you’.

Another characteristic he exposes about most Malaysians is that, Malaysians in general have poor communication skills, irrespective of language spoken. A sentence once uttered, needs to be reviewed one over in your head, would the person you are talking to get the full picture that you have in your head?
But on the whole, I get the impression that the director general is not on top of everything, even in his department even with an engineering background.

Acting Minister of Transport cum Defence Minister Hishammuddin Hussein 
This is the minister that saved Malaysia from more harm that Azharuddin could have done if he remained the chief spokesperson at the press briefings. Instead of several chiefs speaking in contradiction with one another, Hishammuddin provided the press with a single united voice and with a carefully scripted announcement at the start of each briefing. As a seasoned politician, he knows when to even stop the DCA chief or the armed forces chief from talking just when they were about to incriminate themselves, going down the wrong rabbit hole during Q&A.
With that being said, Hishammuddin stance at the press briefings were one of over-arching caution, needing corroborative and verifiable evidence for the simplest issues. It makes Malaysia seem like it was hiding a lot of things, and that didn’t go down well with the families of those affected and the foreign press who were more accustomed to a ‘breaking news’ frequent updates.

A leopard cannot change its spots. Hishammuddin can’t stop being a politician even under the spotlight, but UMNO’s brand of politics is one the West is unaccustomed to. Phrases like 'There is only confusion if you want to see confusion' and ‘I think history will judge us well’ reveal the combative, over defensive, vague and never apologetic nature of Malaysian politicians. Malaysians know it all too well, but now the world has a sneak peek.

MAS CEO, Ahmad Jauhari (AJ)
Among all of the officials on stage, this MAS supremo impresses me most. He has sure made a few missteps dealing with the Chinese families like announcing the aircraft’s crashing into the Indian Ocean by text message. But when faced with the clamour of the press, he sure knows his stuff, down to the minutest detail when probed by reporters. He displayed intimate knowledge of plane systems, aircraft maintenance, operations, engineering specifics and the details of the case of the missing plane. An engineer himself, he surpasses Azharuddin when it comes to knowing the facts about the organisation that is helmed. MAS is lucky to have such an astute CEO at a time like this.

General Zulkifeli Mohd. Zin, Chief of Malaysian Armed Forces and RMAF chief General Rodzali Daud
With all due respect, when the top two military men spoke, finding the next word in the sentence is as difficult as finding for flight MH370 itself. It is a trait seen in many Malaysian top officials and politicians irrespective of the language spoken.

The Malaysian Military 
No surprises here, the military has failed to provide the immediate response that people expect. Not only did they not detect the ill-fated place flying illegally across the peninsula, but it needed days of consulting and verifying with foreign experts to interpret the radar data, which is something we expect the military to be expert at. Total fail for Malaysian military hardware and software.

CNN, and other American Media
When even no news is news itself. The level of fascination the American media has shown is unfathomable even when their viewers are fed up with the non-stop coverage of what is essentially very little news. The problem for Malaysia is that since she doesn’t fare well on the dissecting board. Each second Malaysia spends in the limelight, all her flaws show like being called incompetent in handling the search operations in the early days but was never forgiven despite officials improving the efforts later. In hindsight, there’s no such thing as bad publicity.

Najib Razak
While Tony Abbot has constantly given media briefings on his country’s work on the search and rescue operations, Najib has appeared only twice in connection with MH370 while all the time hiding behind his cousin. And in his two announcements, he made sure they were earth shaking pronouncements and never took any questions from the floor. For that he left it to Hishammuddin on the next day. No wonder people felt Malaysia was hiding things.

The Chinese Families
I sympathise with the families, losing your only child, or in one case, whole families can be devastating. And it’s true, the officials didn’t reveal everything, there are national secrets and a lot of unverified reports. But that should not give them the excuse to overreact, to the point of blaming MAS for bloody murder and demanding information of an ongoing investigation that they wouldn’t normally be privy to. Denial – Anger – Bargaining – Depression – Acceptance – the five stages of grief. Even after months, they’re still stuck in the first and maybe the second stage. Setting aside reason and logic for maniacal sentiment is inexcusable.

The Malaysian Public
Except for the highly unrealistic expectation of miracles, the Malaysians reacted appropriately to the issue of the missing plane.

The Twenty Six Nations involved
There was a time when the search areas covered two massive arcs with all the central Asian countries involved. It brought together many nations who were not on the friendliest terms, and with Malaysia at the centre of it, trying to coordinate everything on the whole. While superficially, all nations pledge their support and cooperation, the world can see how nations try to conceal their military capabilities or how China prevents internal dissatisfaction from the Chinese people by deploying enough ships and applying enough pressure on Malaysia.

I could say, Malaysia Airlines MH370 flying off the map, has put Malaysia on the map. It is unfortunate that Malaysia could only gain fame under such unlucky circumstances.

Strait of Malacca Bridge – A Bridge to Nowhere

Numerous non corrupt individuals commented that the Melaka –Dumai Bridge across the Straits of Melaka is a waste of money, a futile endeavour, and this is true. I will elaborate from a geo-economical standpoint.

Excerpt from the Star Online Newspaper October 16, 2013

The proposed bridge would be built by Malaysia over 48.7km of water, connecting to a mostly agricultural island of Rupat on the Indonesian side. Since the island is mostly uninhabited, the Indonesian side would have to construct a 70km highway semi circling the island to connect the bridge’s landing point with Dumai town. This highway would even need to include a minimum 5 km span bridge to cross the straits separating Sumatra from Rupat Island.

Excerpt from the Star Online Newspaper October 16, 2013

Have you noticed that when making a case for the construction project, the greedy eyed politicians or developers tend to give facts about Dumai alone, without mentioning the colossal fact that you are linking the island of Sumatra, the sixth largest island in the world and largest island in Indonesia, with mainland Asia via Malaysia. This fact is huge, but why did they leave it out? From a glance, it can bring incalculable dollars’ worth of investments and development to the Island of Sumatra. Puzzling indeed.

To understand, one must first look at Sumatra. Sumatra is home to roughly 50 million Indonesians and with land mass of over 1.5 times that of Malaysia (East and West). Sumatra is no Java. Java is Indonesia’s thriving nexus while Sumatra is an important peripheral island. Java’s contribution to Indonesia’s GDP is roughly 2 ½ that of Sumatra’s, reflecting a similar ratio between the two island’s population. Medan is in northern Sumatra is the island’s largest city with roughly 4 million residents. Palembang in the south is the second largest with 1.7 million. Sumatra is largely less developed than Java. But both these islands, account for approximately 80 percent of Indonesia's GDP.

Transportation in archipelagic Indonesia mostly revolves around sea travel via ferries and air travel via low cost airlines. It is due to this that road systems other than on the island of Java are mostly undeveloped. Take the trans-Sumatran highway for instance, it runs from north to south of the vast island but it single carriage way (one lane either direction) at parts, known to be pothole ridden, landslide prone, bumpy and at parts extremely congested. Compared to Malaysian highways, this main artery is no statelier than a federal trunk road.

From Wikipedia Commons

Driven out of necessity rather than grandiosity, ‘pemerintah’ or the Indonesian government has embarked on building the new Trans Sumatran Highway with toll booths! It roughly follows the same alignment as the old one, but this is planned to be a modern infrastructure like our North-South Expressway in Peninsular Malaysia. Expected to be completed in 2020, this would be the turning point for Sumatra on the path towards development. Most importantly, the new highway connects with Dumai directly. Perhaps very forward planning by the Indonesian government?

Excerpt from wildsingaporenews.blogspot 

Nevertheless, Indonesian builders have a notorious reputation of not completing many major infrastructure projects, especially due to financing difficulties. But one such project mooted by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, now in the planning stage, is the Sunda Straits Bridge. Annually, an average of about 20 million people cross the Sunda Strait. This bridge would relieve ferry traffic from the island of Sumatra to Java and effectively connect Jakarta to Bandar Lampung in South Sumatra. Twenty nine kilometres in length this 6 lane dual carriageway bridge accommodate both road and rail traffic. This bridge is key to the Trans Sumatran Highway’s success as it funnels traffic and prosperity from Java to Indonesia’s second most important island.

In my humble opinion, the bridge across the Straits of Melaka should not be built unless the Sunda Straits Bridge and the Trans Sumatran Tolled Highway are completed and a reasonable amount of prosperity is achieved by Sumatra. Until then, if they proceeded with constructing, it will truly be the proverbial bridge to nowhere.

But when all the stars line up, connecting the far flung island of Java to mainland Asia would be poetic victory over the country's geographical fate to say the least. Building it is not a matter of if but when. Just not now, not yet.

 

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Bingeing on Fringe

I was delightfully blown away by the fifth and final season of Fringe. While the initial seasons were mapped out like X-files, monster-of-the-week format, the final and shortest season is an exciting suspenseful serial. It is more of a treat for fans of the earlier 4 seasons like me. I couldn’t stop right after the first episode and couldn’t get enough, I went on a Fringe Binge.

For those of you who don’t know about Fringe, let me explain a little. In Fringe universe, much like the X-Files universe, unusual and unexplained things seem to happen in the US, and that’s why the FBI forms a division, the Fringe Science division to investigate all the things that go bump in the night. Instead of monsters, Fringe frequently deals with some technology or other that brings out the monsters in men.

FBI agent Olivia Dunham recruits Dr. Walter Bishop from a sanitarium. He was once this great scientist who now the world thinks is mad. But Walter doesn’t go willingly, and Olivia hunts down Peter Bishop, Walters’s estranged son to persuade him as well as to legally release him from the mental institution.

Walter is one kooky scientist who insists on working from his old lab in Harvard. There he mingles with anything from candy, LSD to human blood. He keeps a cow in the lab, which he has to regularly feed and clean up after. Basically, Walter is source of scientific inspiration as well as quirky comedy.

In the early seasons, the show follows the procedural drama format, but with every episode, a continuing mystery builds and deepens. For example, the large sinister conglomerate Massive Dynamic was founded by Walter’s science partner, William Bell, before he was institutionalized. Massive Dynamic has conducted many experiments on test subject in the name of science and is the source of many fringe incidents.

A major subplot is the parallel world in which Peter was rescued from. You see, Walter’s original son died some time ago, but Walter jumped into another universe, and inadvertently stole the other Peter back to his universe. Of course all this crossing into parallel universes has its repercussions; as a result the other world experiences singularities like a black hole vortex. Soon such singularities would be formed on this side as well. To counter the singularities, the other side developed ‘Amber’. When a location is ambered, everything turns yellow and has somehow frozen in time and space, and thus preventing the singularities from destroying the place.

Now, the other side knows what Walter did. In fact, Walternate, the other side’s Walter is Secretary of Defense and is launching a war against our world. Among the soldiers are shape shifters who can take the shape, form and voice of someone they just killed. And of course Walternate has a sinister end game.

The other side is quite interesting really. There must be a point in time where they diverged from our universe. Many things are different, the have obsoleted the use of paper, forced everyone to carry IDs and just have an incredibly technologically advanced law enforcement. They still have New York’s Twin Towers because Sept 11 never happened and their statue of Liberty is bronze instead of the green rust we have on ours. Lastly, they have airships!

Another subplot is the Cortexiphan drug experiments Walter and William Bell conducted on children a long time ago. Turns out, Olivia happens to be just one of those children. The catch is that Cortexiphan can give children special abilities, like telekinesis, telepathy, power absorption and all kinds of weird. Among other powers, Olivia had developed the ability to detect and see objects from the parallel universe and well as the ability to cross over.

The third and most intriguing subplot is that of the Observers. Observers are pale, bald men who wear a full grey suits, matching fedoras and carry suitcases around with them. They show up at defining moments in history, hence, they ‘observe’ history. But one such observer took history into his own hands and changed history forever. It resulted in the survival of Peter (from the other side), whom otherwise would have drowned in a lake. The observers would be the basis of a horrible war that takes place in Season 5.

I hope I have whet your appetite for what is no doubt a very good sci-fi series. They don’t make them like these anymore. Many of them now are about a post-apocalyptic world and depict people trying to survive, so it hardly gets too philosophical nor science-y. Five delicious worthwhile seasons. Bon Appétit.